Brighton’s win this weekend against an all-but-relegated Burnley side was far from impressive. Burnley had two goals disallowed for marginal offsides, and the Seagulls had only Mats Wieffer to thank as the makeshift fullback netted his first two goals of the season to take the win.
It wasn’t a comfortable victory at all, but in a must-win game, securing the points is all that matters. The bigger picture is clear: five wins from the last six, three away clean sheets in a row, three away wins in a row. With just six games remaining, Fabian Hurzeler’s side are absolutely flying into the business end of the season.
Current Position
At full time, Albion sat just three points off a Champions League spot (with UEFA now confirming that England’s fifth-placed team will earn an extra place in the competition), though Liverpool’s win has widened that gap to six.
Seeing “Brighton” and “Champions League” in the same conversation still feels strange. It was only two months ago that the Amex was jeering Hurzeler as the team dropped to 14th. Position-wise, Brighton end this weekend in ninth place, jammed right in the middle of a packed race for Europe.
The likelihood is that eighth place will secure a coveted European place this season, barring a major FA Cup upset by one of Leeds or Southampton.
There are no certainties in football, and this run could easily fall apart as quickly as it’s come together. However, according to the Premier League’s ‘Fixture Difficulty Ratings’, Brighton have the “easiest” run-in out of the mid-table (and one of the best in the entire League).
Tottenham (A) – reverse fixture 2-2
This one is huge. Brighton will meet legendary former manager Roberto De Zerbi for the first time since his departure, now in charge of Spurs. It’s his first home game as well, which only adds to it.
Tottenham are one of the weakest sides in the division, but they’ll be desperate to turn things around. It’s still unclear how much of an impact RDZ can have straight away, but regardless, this feels like a big opportunity for Hurzeler to get one over his predecessor and really stamp his authority.
Last time out against Spurs was a pretty even affair, though Albion did squander a two-goal lead in what ended up as a frustrating draw. On another day, that’s a game Brighton would probably win.
This time absolutely feels different. Spurs are in a much worse place, but the De Zerbi factor adds unpredictability. You’d expect Brighton to have the edge against such a downbeaten opponent, but I doubt it will be straightforward.
I’m cautiously optimistic about this one.
Chelsea (H) – reverse fixture 1-3 Brighton
Chelsea at The Amex has become a bit of a rivalry fixture in recent years, as they continue to pillage our transfer targets, our players, and our staff.
Last season’s meetings were no different, though Brighton ran out winners in both the FA Cup and the League, with massive moments like Kaoru Mitoma’s goal of the season winner and Joel Veltman crunching Marc Cucurella.
Earlier this season, Brighton picked up a comfortable win at Stamford Bridge, with Danny Welbeck netting two. However, it is important to note that Chelsea’s red card changed the game completely. Even though Albion ran rampant against ten men in the second half, it was far tighter before that.
With former Albion player Liam Rosenior now in charge, it’s a new dynamic. Chelsea have been inconsistent under Rosenior, and there are already questions being asked. It’s hard to know which version of them turns up.
Many Brighton fans are still quite fond of Rosenior, and honestly, I don’t care so much about the whole “Chelsea rivalry” anymore. Maybe a quieter affair this year, but we’ll be hoping to get a result.
Newcastle (A) – reverse fixture 2-1 Brighton
Brighton have a surprisingly strong record here, unbeaten in the last six against Newcastle.
The reverse fixture was actually one of Brighton’s better performances this season. The scoreline suggests a tight game, but Albion were largely in control, with Danny Welbeck grabbing a brace and the team managing the game well.
That said, this is the toughest game of the run-in for me. It’s a long trip, and even though Newcastle haven’t found much rhythm this season, they’re always capable of producing something when they need it. They’ll also be pushing for Europe.
This feels like a very different test from that earlier meeting. Away from home, with more on the line, it’s likely to be far more open.
This is the one I’m most worried about.
Wolves (H) – reverse fixture 1-1
Similar to the Burnley game, this is a must-win.
The meeting at Molineux was frustrating. Brighton had to scrape a late draw, handing Wolves only their second point of the season at the time. It was disappointing then, and a repeat now would feel even worse.
No disrespect to Wolves, who have proven capable of pulling off random upsets recently, but the stakes here are completely different. The points mean nothing to their season and everything to ours.
Just need to lock in, do the basics, and secure the win at home – easy right?
Leeds United (A) – reverse fixture 3-0 Brighton
Once again, these are the points you just have to pick up.
The home meeting earlier in the season was a comfortable win, but it was Diego Gomez who stole the show with his brace. I think Leeds are possibly the weakest opposition we’ve faced at home this season. We didn’t even have to bring our A-game to win that one.
This will be very different. Since then, Leeds have put together a much more respectable campaign. They are fighting hard at the bottom and won’t make it easy, especially at home. Depending on results, they could still have everything to play for in their fight for survival.
It’s a tough place to go, but this is where Brighton’s quality needs to come through.
Manchester United (H) – reverse fixture 4-2 United
This is the wildcard.
Brighton haven’t faced Michael Carrick’s United side yet, but since his arrival, the Reds have been climbing the table and look set for a Top Four finish. Bruno Fernandes has arguably been the best player in the league this season, and right now, they look like a tough team to beat.
Although we managed to get the win in the FA Cup, United truly tore us apart in the league. Aside from the highlight of Charalampos Kostoulas getting his first Premier League goal, Albion struggled to get control of the game.
If United can secure Champions League football early, then there’s a chance we face a side with their foot off the pedal a bit. I’d hope we could have a Top Eight spot wrapped up too, but knowing Brighton, we will almost certainly have to work for it…
Last Home game of the season, the south coast sun will be shining, and the fans will be up for it – especially if Europe is on the line. If it comes down to the final day, you just hope the pressure won’t be too much.
So, Can Brighton Do It?
Six games. A favourable run-in. Momentum at exactly the right time.
It’s all there for Brighton now, but that doesn’t mean it happens. They’ve given themselves a real chance, and that’s all you can ask for at this stage. The Champions League might still be a bit of a stretch, but Europe is firmly within reach.
It’s in our hands.
